“In 2007, our results from the bread-and-butter lines of insurance will deteriorate, though I think they will remain satisfactory.  The big unknown is super-cat insurance.  Were the terrible hurricane seasons of 2004-05 aberrations?  Or were they our planet’s first warning that the climate of the 21st Century will differ materially from what we’ve seen in the past?  If the answer to the second question is yes, 2006 will soon be perceived as a misleading period of calm preceding a series of devastating storms.  These could rock the insurance industry.  It’s naïve to think of Katrina as anything close to a worst-case event.”